Itaquá Athletico Clube vs America SP

Itaquá Athletico Clube

Preview

20:00

America SP

8/2/2026

Paulista Série B · Semi-finals

Big match

59%

Itaquá Athletico Clube

model favours

59%24%17%

America SP are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

45%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Itaquá Athletico Clube59%

×Draw24%

America SP17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Itaquá Athletico ClubeExpected goals in this matchAmerica SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.79

Itaquá Athletico Clube

1.72

America SP

0.79

Itaquá Athletico Clube creates 118% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

2.43

creates per match

1.29

0.29

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Itaquá Athletico Clube

2.43

America SP

1.29

allows per match

Itaquá Athletico Clube

0.29

America SP

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Itaquá Athletico Clube+0.00on par

America SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itaquá Athletico Clube ↓

America SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Itaquá Athletico Clube or draw

83%

Itaquá Athletico Clube or America SP

76%

Draw or America SP

41%

Winning margin

Itaquá Athletico Clube wins by 2+

34%

America SP wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Itaquá Athletico Clube 1+ goals

82%

Itaquá Athletico Clube 2+ goals

51%

Itaquá Athletico Clube 3+ goals

25%

America SP 1+ goals

55%

America SP 2+ goals

19%

America SP 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Itaquá Athletico Clube (draw refunded)

78%

America SP (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itaquá Athletico Clube at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

America SP away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itaquá Athletico Clube attack 2.43 + America SP defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

America SP attack 1.29 + Itaquá Athletico Clube defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Itaquá Athletico Clube scores more

59%

level

24%

America SP scores more

17%

Itaquá Athletico Clube at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Itaquá Athletico Clube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Itaquá Athletico Clube have won 5 in a row
Itaquá Athletico Clube have scored in 12 games running
Itaquá Athletico Clube score first in 75% of matches
47% of America SP’s goals come after the 75th minute
Top-of-the-table clash — Itaquá Athletico Clube 1 vs America SP 2
Itaquá Athletico Clube and America SP have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Clube

WWWWL

SP

WDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff