Italy U17 vs France U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022
Italy U17 are unbeaten in 10 straight
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Italy U1741%
France U1735%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 18 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over61
- Under39
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes63
- No37
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Italy U17 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Italy U17 at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches
France U17 away — creates 2.30, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Italy U17 attack 2.89 + France U17 defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.65
France U17 attack 2.30 + Italy U17 defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.51
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Italy U17 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Italy U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Italy U17 score first in only 20% of matches
- Top-of-the-table clash — Italy U17 1 vs France U17 1
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Italy U17 host France U17 on Tuesday, 17 November 2026 at 14:00. The match is part of the UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022/2023 season.
Preview: Italy U17 host France U17
November 17, 2026: Italy U17 take on France U17 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.