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Italy U17 vs Armenia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Italy U17
Italy U17
Preview
14:00
Armenia U17
Armenia U17
11/14/2026UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 1
Big match
88%
Italy U17
model favours
88%8%3%

Italy U17 are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

3–0
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Italy U1788%
×Draw8%
Armenia U173%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Italy U17
3.31
Armenia U17
0.53

Italy U17 creates 525% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

creates per match

Italy U17
2.89
Armenia U17
0.33

allows per match

Italy U17
0.72
Armenia U17
3.73

finishing

Italy U17+0.00on par
Armenia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U17 ↓

Armenia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Italy U17 or draw
97%
Italy U17 or Armenia U17
92%
Draw or Armenia U17
12%

Winning margin

Italy U17 wins by 2+
72%
Armenia U17 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Italy U17 1+ goals
96%
Italy U17 2+ goals
83%
Italy U17 3+ goals
62%
Armenia U17 1+ goals
41%
Armenia U17 2+ goals
10%
Armenia U17 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Italy U17 (draw refunded)
96%
Armenia U17 (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U17 at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Armenia U17 away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U17 attack 2.89 + Armenia U17 defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 3.31

Armenia U17 attack 0.33 + Italy U17 defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Italy U17 scores more
88%
level
8%
Armenia U17 scores more
3%

Italy U17 at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Italy U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Italy U17 score first in only 20% of matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Italy U17 1 vs Armenia U17 3
  • Italy U17 and Armenia U17 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
DDDWW
U17
WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Italy U17 vs Armenia U17 — Match Preview

Italy U17 face Armenia U17 on November 14, 2026 in this UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.