Istra 1961 2–0 NK Varazdin: Result & Stats | HNL

Istra 1961

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

NK Varazdin

12/1/2023

HNL · Round 17Stadion Aldo Drosina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Istra 196139%

×Draw28%

NK Varazdin33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Istra 1961Expected goals in this matchNK Varazdin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.11

Istra 1961

1.23

NK Varazdin

1.11

Istra 1961 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 108 away

1.11

creates per match

0.89

1.33

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Istra 1961

1.11

NK Varazdin

0.89

allows per match

Istra 1961

1.33

NK Varazdin

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istra 1961+0.00on par

NK Varazdin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istra 1961 ↓

NK Varazdin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Istra 1961 or draw

67%

Istra 1961 or NK Varazdin

72%

Draw or NK Varazdin

61%

Winning margin

Istra 1961 wins by 2+

17%

NK Varazdin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Istra 1961 1+ goals

71%

Istra 1961 2+ goals

35%

Istra 1961 3+ goals

13%

NK Varazdin 1+ goals

67%

NK Varazdin 2+ goals

30%

NK Varazdin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)

54%

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istra 1961 at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 144 matches

NK Varazdin away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istra 1961 attack 1.11 + NK Varazdin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

NK Varazdin attack 0.89 + Istra 1961 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Istra 1961 scores more

39%

level

28%

NK Varazdin scores more

33%

Istra 1961 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Istra 1961 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff