Istiqlol 5–0 Khosilot Farkhor: Result & Stats

Istiqlol

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Khosilot Farkhor

5/19/2023

Vysshaya Liga · Round 10Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Istiqlol72%

×Draw17%

Khosilot Farkhor11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IstiqlolExpected goals in this matchKhosilot Farkhor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.79

Istiqlol

2.38

Khosilot Farkhor

0.79

Istiqlol creates 201% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 51 away

3.20

creates per match

1.04

0.53

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Istiqlol

3.20

Khosilot Farkhor

1.04

allows per match

Istiqlol

0.53

Khosilot Farkhor

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw

89%

Istiqlol or Khosilot Farkhor

83%

Draw or Khosilot Farkhor

28%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+

49%

Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals

91%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

68%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

42%

Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals

55%

Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals

19%

Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

87%

Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 3.20 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.38

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.04 + Istiqlol defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Istiqlol scores more

72%

level

17%

Khosilot Farkhor scores more

11%

Istiqlol at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff