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Istiqlol vs Istaravshan — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Istiqlol
Istiqlol
Preview
12:00
Istaravshan
Istaravshan
11/7/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 22
Big match
77%
Istiqlol
model favours
77%15%8%

Istiqlol are unbeaten in 12 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Istiqlol77%
×Draw15%
Istaravshan8%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istiqlol
2.52
Istaravshan
0.69

Istiqlol creates 265% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 43 away

creates per match

Istiqlol
3.29
Istaravshan
0.88

allows per match

Istiqlol
0.49
Istaravshan
1.74

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par
Istaravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Istaravshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw
92%
Istiqlol or Istaravshan
85%
Draw or Istaravshan
23%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+
55%
Istaravshan wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals
92%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
71%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
45%
Istaravshan 1+ goals
50%
Istaravshan 2+ goals
15%
Istaravshan 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)
90%
Istaravshan (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 3.29, concedes 0.49 · 45 matches

Istaravshan away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 3.29 + Istaravshan defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.52

Istaravshan attack 0.88 + Istiqlol defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Istiqlol scores more
77%
level
15%
Istaravshan scores more
8%

Istiqlol at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Istiqlol score first in only 17% of matches
  • Istaravshan win just 0% of their away games
  • Istiqlol have won 7 of the last 7 meetings
  • Istiqlol sit 1, Istaravshan 12 in the table
  • Their last 7 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Istiqlol
WWDWW
Istaravshan
DDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Istiqlol host Istaravshan

November 7, 2026: Istiqlol take on Istaravshan in Vysshaya Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.