Istiqlol 3–0 Istaravshan: Result & Stats

Istiqlol

FT

3 – 0

Istaravshan

8/31/2022

Vysshaya Liga · Round 3Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Istiqlol74%

×Draw16%

Istaravshan10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IstiqlolExpected goals in this matchIstaravshan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

0.77

Istiqlol

2.48

Istaravshan

0.77

Istiqlol creates 222% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 81 away

3.20

creates per match

1.00

0.53

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Istiqlol

3.20

Istaravshan

1.00

allows per match

Istiqlol

0.53

Istaravshan

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Istaravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Istaravshan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw

90%

Istiqlol or Istaravshan

84%

Draw or Istaravshan

26%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+

52%

Istaravshan wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals

92%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

70%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

44%

Istaravshan 1+ goals

54%

Istaravshan 2+ goals

18%

Istaravshan 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

88%

Istaravshan (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

Istaravshan away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 3.20 + Istaravshan defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.48

Istaravshan attack 1.00 + Istiqlol defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Istiqlol scores more

74%

level

16%

Istaravshan scores more

10%

Istiqlol at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff