Istaravshan 0–1 Istiqlol: Result & Stats

Istaravshan

FT

0 – 1

Istiqlol

9/26/2021

Vysshaya Liga · Round 21Stadion Istaravshan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Istaravshan19%

×Draw23%

Istiqlol59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IstaravshanExpected goals in this matchIstiqlol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.83

Istaravshan

0.92

Istiqlol

1.83

Istiqlol creates 99% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 100 away

1.21

creates per match

2.52

1.15

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Istaravshan

1.21

Istiqlol

2.52

allows per match

Istaravshan

1.15

Istiqlol

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istaravshan+0.00on par

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istaravshan ↓

Istiqlol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Istaravshan or draw

41%

Istaravshan or Istiqlol

77%

Draw or Istiqlol

81%

Winning margin

Istaravshan wins by 2+

6%

Istiqlol wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Istaravshan 1+ goals

60%

Istaravshan 2+ goals

23%

Istaravshan 3+ goals

7%

Istiqlol 1+ goals

84%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

54%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Istaravshan (draw refunded)

24%

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istaravshan at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 2.52, concedes 0.63 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istaravshan attack 1.21 + Istiqlol defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.92

Istiqlol attack 2.52 + Istaravshan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Istaravshan scores more

19%

level

23%

Istiqlol scores more

59%

Istiqlol at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Istaravshan vs Istiqlol

Istiqlol beat Istaravshan 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Istaravshan in Istaravshan.

Istaravshan vs Istiqlol — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Istaravshan vs Istiqlol