İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor

İstanbulspor

Preview

16:00

Esenler Erokspor

10/11/2026

1. Lig · Round 9

Big match

38%

İstanbulspor

model favours

38%25%37%

İstanbulspor win just 26% against the top half (vs 55% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

İstanbulspor38%

×Draw25%

Esenler Erokspor37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İstanbulsporExpected goals in this matchEsenler Erokspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.44

İstanbulspor

1.45

Esenler Erokspor

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 38 away

1.72

creates per match

1.71

1.17

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

İstanbulspor

1.72

Esenler Erokspor

1.71

allows per match

İstanbulspor

1.17

Esenler Erokspor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw

63%

İstanbulspor or Esenler Erokspor

75%

Draw or Esenler Erokspor

62%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

18%

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

77%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

42%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

18%

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

76%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

42%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

50%

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 1.72 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.45

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + İstanbulspor defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

İstanbulspor scores more

38%

level

25%

Esenler Erokspor scores more

37%

İstanbulspor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Their last 5 meetings averaged 4 goals
Esenler Erokspor fall short of their xG (1.6 vs 2.0 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

İstanbulspor

Balanced

Esenler Erokspor

Possession-dominant

49%Possession56%

78%Pass accuracy81%

11.1Shots13.3

1.21xGBiggest gap2.04

İstanbulsporEsenler Erokspor

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3

İstanbulspor

0

Draws

2

Esenler Erokspor

Avg goals: 4BTTS: 40%

1–40–53–04–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

İstanbulspor

LWWWW

Erokspor

LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff