Israel vs Austria: Preview & Prediction

Israel

Preview

19:45

Austria

11/17/2026

UEFA Nations League · 6

Big match

38%

Austria

model favours

35%27%38%

Top-of-the-table clash — Israel 4 vs Austria 2

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

51%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Israel35%

×Draw27%

Austria38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IsraelExpected goals in this matchAustria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.29

Israel

1.23

Austria

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.38

creates per match

1.09

1.50

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Israel

1.38

Austria

1.09

allows per match

Israel

1.50

Austria

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Israel+0.00on par

Austria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Israel ↓

Austria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Israel or draw

62%

Israel or Austria

73%

Draw or Austria

65%

Winning margin

Israel wins by 2+

15%

Austria wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Israel 1+ goals

71%

Israel 2+ goals

35%

Israel 3+ goals

13%

Austria 1+ goals

72%

Austria 2+ goals

37%

Austria 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Israel (draw refunded)

48%

Austria (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Israel at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Austria away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Israel attack 1.38 + Austria defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Austria attack 1.09 + Israel defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Israel scores more

35%

level

27%

Austria scores more

38%

Austria at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Their last 4 meetings averaged 5.8 goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 4 meetings
Style contrast — Israel play Direct / counter-attacking, Austria Possession-dominant

Based on historical data — not a prediction.