Ismaily SC 1–0 Misr El Makasa: Result & Stats

Ismaily SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Misr El Makasa

8/24/2018

Premier League · Round 4Ismaïlia Stadium (Ismailia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Ismaily SC40%

×Draw29%

Misr El Makasa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ismaily SCExpected goals in this matchMisr El Makasa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.05

Ismaily SC

1.21

Misr El Makasa

1.05

Ismaily SC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 68 away

1.04

creates per match

0.87

1.23

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Ismaily SC

1.04

Misr El Makasa

0.87

allows per match

Ismaily SC

1.23

Misr El Makasa

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ismaily SC+0.00on par

Misr El Makasa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ismaily SC ↓

Misr El Makasa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ismaily SC or draw

68%

Ismaily SC or Misr El Makasa

71%

Draw or Misr El Makasa

60%

Winning margin

Ismaily SC wins by 2+

17%

Misr El Makasa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ismaily SC 1+ goals

70%

Ismaily SC 2+ goals

34%

Ismaily SC 3+ goals

12%

Misr El Makasa 1+ goals

65%

Misr El Makasa 2+ goals

28%

Misr El Makasa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ismaily SC (draw refunded)

56%

Misr El Makasa (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ismaily SC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Misr El Makasa away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ismaily SC attack 1.04 + Misr El Makasa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.21

Misr El Makasa attack 0.87 + Ismaily SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ismaily SC scores more

40%

level

29%

Misr El Makasa scores more

32%

Ismaily SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ismaily SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff