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Iskra vs Rudar — Cup 2020

Iskra
Iskra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rudar
Rudaradvanced
8/30/2023CupCup · Round of 16Stadion Braća Velašević

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Iskra44%
×Draw24%
Rudar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iskra
1.60
Rudar
1.34

Iskra creates 19% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Iskra
1.20
Rudar
1.29

allows per match

Iskra
1.40
Rudar
2.00

finishing

Iskra+0.00on par
Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iskra ↓

Rudar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Iskra or draw
68%
Iskra or Rudar
76%
Draw or Rudar
56%

Winning margin

Iskra wins by 2+
22%
Rudar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Iskra 1+ goals
80%
Iskra 2+ goals
47%
Iskra 3+ goals
22%
Rudar 1+ goals
74%
Rudar 2+ goals
39%
Rudar 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Iskra (draw refunded)
58%
Rudar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iskra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Rudar away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iskra attack 1.20 + Rudar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Rudar attack 1.29 + Iskra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Iskra scores more
44%
level
24%
Rudar scores more
32%

Iskra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Iskra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iskra 1 – 2 Rudar

Rudar beat Iskra 2-1 in Cup on August 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Braća Velašević in Danilovgrad.