Isidro Metapán 1–1 Sonsonate: Result & Stats

Isidro Metapán

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sonsonate

Milton Molina 5' (pen)

D. Boquín 57'

8/4/2019

Primera Division · Apertura - 2Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Isidro Metapán48%

×Draw25%

Sonsonate27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Isidro MetapánExpected goals in this matchSonsonate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.12

Isidro Metapán

1.58

Sonsonate

1.12

Isidro Metapán creates 41% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 36 away

1.29

creates per match

1.17

1.07

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Isidro Metapán

1.29

Sonsonate

1.17

allows per match

Isidro Metapán

1.07

Sonsonate

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Isidro Metapán+0.00on par

Sonsonate+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isidro Metapán ↓

Sonsonate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Isidro Metapán or draw

73%

Isidro Metapán or Sonsonate

75%

Draw or Sonsonate

52%

Winning margin

Isidro Metapán wins by 2+

25%

Sonsonate wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Isidro Metapán 1+ goals

79%

Isidro Metapán 2+ goals

47%

Isidro Metapán 3+ goals

21%

Sonsonate 1+ goals

67%

Sonsonate 2+ goals

31%

Sonsonate 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)

64%

Sonsonate (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isidro Metapán at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 147 matches

Sonsonate away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isidro Metapán attack 1.29 + Sonsonate defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sonsonate attack 1.17 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Isidro Metapán scores more

48%

level

25%

Sonsonate scores more

27%

Isidro Metapán at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Isidro Metapán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Milton MolinaPenalty

46'

H. Alvarenga← J. Morán

57'

D. Boquín

61'

J. Murcia← J. Cerritos

63'

R. González← W. Maldonado

69'

L. Figueroa← G. Guirola

81'

K. Ayala← D. Boquín

82'

Marvin Molina← M. Márquez

Isidro

Sonsonate

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Portillo

61'▲J. Murcia←▼J. Cerritos

69'▲L. Figueroa←▼G. Guirola

82'▲Marvin Molina←▼M. Márquez

Isidro Metapán substitutes

MurciaFigueroaMolina

Manager: R. Da Silva

46'▲H. Alvarenga←▼J. Morán

63'▲R. González←▼W. Maldonado

81'▲K. Ayala←▼D. Boquín

Sonsonate substitutes

AlvarengaGonzálezAyala

Match Recap: Isidro Metapán vs Sonsonate

Isidro Metapán and Sonsonate drew 1-1 in Primera Division on August 4, 2019.

Goals: Milton Molina (5' pen), D. Boquín (57').

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez in Metapán.

Isidro Metapán vs Sonsonate — Primera Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Isidro Metapán vs Sonsonate