Isidro Metapán 1–0 Jocoro: Result & Stats

Isidro Metapán

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jocoro

9/1/2019

Primera Division · Apertura - 7Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Isidro Metapán49%

×Draw27%

Jocoro24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Isidro MetapánExpected goals in this matchJocoro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.94

Isidro Metapán

1.46

Jocoro

0.94

Isidro Metapán creates 55% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 103 away

1.29

creates per match

0.80

1.07

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Isidro Metapán

1.29

Jocoro

0.80

allows per match

Isidro Metapán

1.07

Jocoro

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Isidro Metapán+0.00on par

Jocoro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isidro Metapán ↓

Jocoro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Isidro Metapán or draw

76%

Isidro Metapán or Jocoro

73%

Draw or Jocoro

51%

Winning margin

Isidro Metapán wins by 2+

24%

Jocoro wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Isidro Metapán 1+ goals

77%

Isidro Metapán 2+ goals

43%

Isidro Metapán 3+ goals

18%

Jocoro 1+ goals

61%

Jocoro 2+ goals

24%

Jocoro 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)

67%

Jocoro (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isidro Metapán at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 147 matches

Jocoro away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isidro Metapán attack 1.29 + Jocoro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Jocoro attack 0.80 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Isidro Metapán scores more

49%

level

27%

Jocoro scores more

24%

Isidro Metapán at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Isidro Metapán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff