Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Isidro Metapán vs Fuerte San Francisco — Primera Division 2019

Isidro Metapán
Isidro Metapán
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco
1/21/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 2Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Isidro Metapán46%
×Draw27%
Fuerte San Francisco27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isidro Metapán
1.40
Fuerte San Francisco
1.00

Isidro Metapán creates 40% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 67 away

creates per match

Isidro Metapán
1.29
Fuerte San Francisco
0.94

allows per match

Isidro Metapán
1.07
Fuerte San Francisco
1.51

finishing

Isidro Metapán+0.00on par
Fuerte San Francisco+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isidro Metapán ↓

Fuerte San Francisco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Isidro Metapán or draw
73%
Isidro Metapán or Fuerte San Francisco
73%
Draw or Fuerte San Francisco
54%

Winning margin

Isidro Metapán wins by 2+
22%
Fuerte San Francisco wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Isidro Metapán 1+ goals
75%
Isidro Metapán 2+ goals
41%
Isidro Metapán 3+ goals
17%
Fuerte San Francisco 1+ goals
63%
Fuerte San Francisco 2+ goals
26%
Fuerte San Francisco 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)
63%
Fuerte San Francisco (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isidro Metapán at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 147 matches

Fuerte San Francisco away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.51 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isidro Metapán attack 1.29 + Fuerte San Francisco defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fuerte San Francisco attack 0.94 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Isidro Metapán scores more
46%
level
27%
Fuerte San Francisco scores more
27%

Isidro Metapán at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Isidro Metapán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Isidro Metapán 2–0 Fuerte San Francisco

Isidro Metapán beat Fuerte San Francisco 2-0 in Primera Division on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez in Metapán.