Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Isidro Metapán vs Chalatenango — Primera Division 2019

Isidro Metapán
Isidro Metapán
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chalatenango
Chalatenango
4/8/2021Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Isidro Metapán46%
×Draw26%
Chalatenango28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isidro Metapán
1.52
Chalatenango
1.13

Isidro Metapán creates 35% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 74 away

creates per match

Isidro Metapán
1.29
Chalatenango
1.18

allows per match

Isidro Metapán
1.07
Chalatenango
1.74

finishing

Isidro Metapán+0.00on par
Chalatenango+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isidro Metapán ↓

Chalatenango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Isidro Metapán or draw
72%
Isidro Metapán or Chalatenango
74%
Draw or Chalatenango
54%

Winning margin

Isidro Metapán wins by 2+
23%
Chalatenango wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Isidro Metapán 1+ goals
78%
Isidro Metapán 2+ goals
45%
Isidro Metapán 3+ goals
20%
Chalatenango 1+ goals
68%
Chalatenango 2+ goals
31%
Chalatenango 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)
62%
Chalatenango (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isidro Metapán at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 147 matches

Chalatenango away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isidro Metapán attack 1.29 + Chalatenango defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chalatenango attack 1.18 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Isidro Metapán scores more
46%
level
26%
Chalatenango scores more
28%

Isidro Metapán at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Isidro Metapán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Isidro Metapán vs Chalatenango

Isidro Metapán beat Chalatenango 1-0 in Primera Division on April 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez in Metapán.