Ishøj 1–2 Fremad Amager: Result & Stats

Ishøj

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Fremad Amager

M. Azaquoun 23'

C. Boateng 81' (pen)

A. Petraeus 29'

8/24/2024

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 4Ishøj Idrætscenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ishøj39%

×Draw26%

Fremad Amager35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IshøjExpected goals in this matchFremad Amager

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.27

Ishøj

1.36

Fremad Amager

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 48 away

1.25

creates per match

1.17

1.38

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Ishøj

1.25

Fremad Amager

1.17

allows per match

Ishøj

1.38

Fremad Amager

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ishøj+0.00on par

Fremad Amager+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ishøj ↓

Fremad Amager →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ishøj or draw

65%

Ishøj or Fremad Amager

74%

Draw or Fremad Amager

61%

Winning margin

Ishøj wins by 2+

18%

Fremad Amager wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ishøj 1+ goals

74%

Ishøj 2+ goals

39%

Ishøj 3+ goals

16%

Fremad Amager 1+ goals

72%

Fremad Amager 2+ goals

36%

Fremad Amager 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ishøj (draw refunded)

53%

Fremad Amager (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ishøj at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

Fremad Amager away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ishøj attack 1.25 + Fremad Amager defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Fremad Amager attack 1.17 + Ishøj defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ishøj scores more

39%

level

26%

Fremad Amager scores more

35%

Ishøj at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ishøj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

H. El Idrissi

23'

M. Azaquoun

29'

A. Petraeus

33'

H. Derrar

44'

M. Al Atlassi

46'

L. Keita← L. Keita

60'

T. Pedersen

60'

C. Boateng

63'

M. Julo← O. Dupont

63'

M. Al Atlassi← C. Troelsen

65'

J. Moussa← J. Moussa

65'

P. Appiah← P. Appiah

68'

M. Belmaillah← M. Belmaillah

70'

B. Kruse← B. Kruse

71'

P. Appiah

79'

C. Cordua

81'

C. BoatengPenalty

83'

I. Badran← I. Badran

83'

A. Hassan← E. Salamoun

87'

M. Langberg

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff