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Irtysh vs FC Astana — Premier League 2026

Irtysh
Irtysh
Preview
14:00
FC Astana
FC Astana
7/19/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Centralnyj Stadion
44%
FC Astana
model favours
28%28%44%

Both teams score in 92% of FC Astana’s matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Irtysh28%
×Draw28%
FC Astana44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irtysh
0.98
FC Astana
1.30

FC Astana creates 33% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 92 away

creates per match

Irtysh
1.04
FC Astana
1.43

allows per match

Irtysh
1.17
FC Astana
0.91

finishing

Irtysh+0.00on par
FC Astana+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh ↓

FC Astana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Irtysh or draw
56%
Irtysh or FC Astana
72%
Draw or FC Astana
72%

Winning margin

Irtysh wins by 2+
10%
FC Astana wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Irtysh 1+ goals
62%
Irtysh 2+ goals
26%
Irtysh 3+ goals
8%
FC Astana 1+ goals
73%
FC Astana 2+ goals
37%
FC Astana 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Irtysh (draw refunded)
39%
FC Astana (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

FC Astana away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.91 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh attack 1.04 + FC Astana defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

FC Astana attack 1.43 + Irtysh defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Irtysh scores more
28%
level
28%
FC Astana scores more
44%

FC Astana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Astana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Irtysh score first in only 29% of matches
  • Irtysh sit 16, FC Astana 3 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Irtysh
LDLDL
Astana
LWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Irtysh host FC Astana

July 19, 2026: Irtysh take on FC Astana in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Irtysh host FC Astana at Centralnyj Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.