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Irtysh Omsk vs Veles — First League 2026

Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Veles
Veles
10/28/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Red Star Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Irtysh Omsk29%
×Draw29%
Veles42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irtysh Omsk
0.96
Veles
1.23

Veles creates 28% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 58 away

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk
0.57
Veles
0.95

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.52
Veles
1.34

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par
Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Veles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw
58%
Irtysh Omsk or Veles
71%
Draw or Veles
71%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
10%
Veles wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
62%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
25%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
7%
Veles 1+ goals
71%
Veles 2+ goals
35%
Veles 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
40%
Veles (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

Veles away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.57 + Veles defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.96

Veles attack 0.95 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more
29%
level
29%
Veles scores more
42%

Veles at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Irtysh Omsk vs Veles

Veles beat Irtysh Omsk 2-1 in First League on October 28, 2020.

The match was played at Red Star Stadium in Omsk.