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Irtysh Omsk vs Dinamo Stavropol — Second League A - Division A Silver 2026

Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
Preview
15:00
Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
9/4/2026Second League A - Division A SilverSecond League A - Division A Silver · Division A Silver - 8Red Star Stadium
39%
Dinamo Stavropol
model favours
33%29%39%

Irtysh Omsk and Dinamo Stavropol have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Irtysh Omsk33%
×Draw29%
Dinamo Stavropol39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irtysh Omsk
1.07
Dinamo Stavropol
1.20

Dinamo Stavropol creates 12% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk
0.75
Dinamo Stavropol
1.40

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Dinamo Stavropol
1.40

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par
Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw
61%
Irtysh Omsk or Dinamo Stavropol
71%
Draw or Dinamo Stavropol
67%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
13%
Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
66%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
29%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
9%
Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
34%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
45%
Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.75 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.40 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more
33%
level
29%
Dinamo Stavropol scores more
39%

Dinamo Stavropol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Omsk
LLLLD
Stavropol
DLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Irtysh Omsk host Dinamo Stavropol

September 4, 2026: Irtysh Omsk take on Dinamo Stavropol in Second League A - Division A Silver. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Irtysh Omsk host Dinamo Stavropol at Red Star Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.