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Irtysh Omsk vs Dinamo Moskva II — Second League A - Division A Silver 2026

Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
Preview
15:00
Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
9/25/2026Second League A - Division A SilverSecond League A - Division A Silver · Division A Silver - 11Red Star Stadium
42%
Dinamo Moskva II
model favours
30%28%42%

Dinamo Moskva II score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Irtysh Omsk30%
×Draw28%
Dinamo Moskva II42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Dinamo Moskva II
1.25

Dinamo Moskva II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk
0.75
Dinamo Moskva II
1.50

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Dinamo Moskva II
1.25

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par
Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Dinamo Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw
58%
Irtysh Omsk or Dinamo Moskva II
72%
Draw or Dinamo Moskva II
70%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
11%
Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
63%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
26%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
8%
Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
41%
Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Dinamo Moskva II away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.75 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Dinamo Moskva II attack 1.50 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more
30%
level
28%
Dinamo Moskva II scores more
42%

Dinamo Moskva II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 67% of Dinamo Moskva II’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Irtysh Omsk and Dinamo Moskva II have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Omsk
LLLLD
II
LDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Irtysh Omsk vs Dinamo Moskva II — Match Preview

Irtysh Omsk face Dinamo Moskva II on September 25, 2026 in this Second League A - Division A Silver fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Irtysh Omsk host Dinamo Moskva II at Red Star Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.