Iraq vs United Arab Emirates — Asian Cup 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Iraq46%
United Arab Emirates32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Iraq creates 21% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over72
- Under28
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes71
- No29
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Iraq ↓
Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Iraq at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches
United Arab Emirates away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Iraq attack 2.40 + United Arab Emirates defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.04
United Arab Emirates attack 1.17 + Iraq defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.69
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Iraq at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Iraq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Qatar
Jordan
Iran
Australia
Japan
UzbekistanIraq
Saudi Arabia
South Korea
BahrainUnited Arab Emirates
Thailand
Syria
Tajikistan
Palestine
Indonesia
Oman
China
Kyrgyzstan
Lebanon
Malaysia
Vietnam
Hong Kong
IndiaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Iraq host United Arab Emirates on Friday, 30 January 2015 at 09:00. The match is part of the Asian Cup 2019/2020 season.
Asian Cup: Iraq 2–3 United Arab Emirates
United Arab Emirates beat Iraq 3-2 in Asian Cup on January 30, 2015.
Goals: Ahmed Khalil (16', 51'), Waleed Salim (28'), Amjad Kalaf (42'), Ali Ahmed Mabkhout (57' pen).
The match was played at Hunter Stadium (Newcastle).