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Ipswich vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
West Brom
West Brom
11/23/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 18Portman Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Ipswich52%
×Draw25%
West Brom23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
1.60
West Brom
0.97

Ipswich creates 65% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 40 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.99
West Brom
1.19

allows per match

Ipswich
0.76
West Brom
1.21

finishing

Ipswich+0.13scores more
West Brom-0.06on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
77%
Ipswich or West Brom
75%
Draw or West Brom
48%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
27%
West Brom wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
80%
Ipswich 2+ goals
47%
Ipswich 3+ goals
22%
West Brom 1+ goals
62%
West Brom 2+ goals
25%
West Brom 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
69%
West Brom (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.99 + West Brom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.60

West Brom attack 1.19 + Ipswich defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ipswich scores more
52%
level
25%
West Brom scores more
23%

Ipswich at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ipswich vs West Brom

West Brom beat Ipswich 2-1 in Championship on November 23, 2018.

The match was played at Portman Road Stadium in Ipswich.