Ipswich 0–1 Coventry: Result & Stats | League One

Ipswich

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Coventry

M. Godden 16'

3/7/2020

League One · Round 37Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Ipswich48%

×Draw25%

Coventry26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.07

Ipswich

1.55

Coventry

1.07

Ipswich creates 45% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 44 away

1.70

creates per match

1.32

0.83

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Ipswich

1.70

Coventry

1.32

allows per match

Ipswich

0.83

Coventry

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par

Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

74%

Ipswich or Coventry

75%

Draw or Coventry

52%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

25%

Coventry wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

79%

Ipswich 2+ goals

46%

Ipswich 3+ goals

20%

Coventry 1+ goals

66%

Coventry 2+ goals

29%

Coventry 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

65%

Coventry (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Coventry defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.55

Coventry attack 1.32 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ipswich scores more

48%

level

25%

Coventry scores more

26%

Ipswich at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Maroši

Coventry · G

7.4

Match Events

16'

30'

45'

59'

62'

64'

68'

68'

74'

76'

78'

A. Bakayoko← M. Godden

85'

Z. Westbrooke← C. OHare

90'

Sam McCallum

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichCoventry

Overview

56%Possession44%

6Total Shots8

5Corners3

14Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots8

2On Target2

3Off Target2

1Blocked4

4Inside Box7

2Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

574Total Passes449

435Accurate Passes304

76%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

5Offsides5