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Ipatinga vs Democrata SL — Mineiro - 2 2026

Ipatinga
Ipatinga
FT
2 – 0
Democrata SL
Democrata SL
7/3/2021Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 1Arena Vera Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Ipatinga33%
×Draw30%
Democrata SL37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipatinga
1.02
Democrata SL
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 40 away

creates per match

Ipatinga
1.07
Democrata SL
0.97

allows per match

Ipatinga
1.25
Democrata SL
0.97

finishing

Ipatinga+0.00on par
Democrata SL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipatinga ↓

Democrata SL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ipatinga or draw
63%
Ipatinga or Democrata SL
70%
Draw or Democrata SL
67%

Winning margin

Ipatinga wins by 2+
12%
Democrata SL wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ipatinga 1+ goals
64%
Ipatinga 2+ goals
27%
Ipatinga 3+ goals
8%
Democrata SL 1+ goals
67%
Democrata SL 2+ goals
30%
Democrata SL 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ipatinga (draw refunded)
47%
Democrata SL (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipatinga at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 40 matches

Democrata SL away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipatinga attack 1.07 + Democrata SL defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Democrata SL attack 0.97 + Ipatinga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ipatinga scores more
33%
level
30%
Democrata SL scores more
37%

Democrata SL at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Democrata SL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ipatinga vs Democrata SL

Ipatinga beat Democrata SL 2-0 in Mineiro - 2 on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at Arena Vera Cruz in Betim, Minas Gerais.