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Invincible Eleven vs LISCR — LFA First Division 2020

Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
FT
0 – 1
LISCR
LISCR
11/13/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 11Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Invincible Eleven30%
×Draw26%
LISCR44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Invincible Eleven
1.19
LISCR
1.49

LISCR creates 25% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 73 away

creates per match

Invincible Eleven
1.20
LISCR
1.62

allows per match

Invincible Eleven
1.35
LISCR
1.18

finishing

Invincible Eleven+0.00on par
LISCR+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Invincible Eleven ↓

LISCR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Invincible Eleven or draw
56%
Invincible Eleven or LISCR
74%
Draw or LISCR
70%

Winning margin

Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
12%
LISCR wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
70%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
33%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
12%
LISCR 1+ goals
77%
LISCR 2+ goals
44%
LISCR 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
41%
LISCR (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Invincible Eleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

LISCR away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Invincible Eleven attack 1.20 + LISCR defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

LISCR attack 1.62 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Invincible Eleven scores more
30%
level
26%
LISCR scores more
44%

LISCR at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "LISCR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Invincible Eleven vs LISCR

LISCR beat Invincible Eleven 1-0 in LFA First Division on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.