Inverness CT 2–2 Morton: Result & Stats

Inverness CT

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Morton

E. Cairns 85'

B. McKay 57'

R. Muirhead 80'

C. Miller 5'

2/4/2023

League #180 · Round 24Tulloch Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Inverness CT42%

×Draw27%

Morton31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inverness CTExpected goals in this matchMorton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.11

Inverness CT

1.34

Morton

1.11

Inverness CT creates 21% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

1.30

creates per match

0.97

1.26

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Inverness CT

1.30

Morton

0.97

allows per match

Inverness CT

1.26

Morton

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Morton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

Morton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw

69%

Inverness CT or Morton

73%

Draw or Morton

58%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+

19%

Morton wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals

74%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

39%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

15%

Morton 1+ goals

67%

Morton 2+ goals

30%

Morton 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

58%

Morton (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Morton away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 1.30 + Morton defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Morton attack 0.97 + Inverness CT defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Inverness CT scores more

42%

level

27%

Morton scores more

31%

Inverness CT at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

C. Miller

45'

R. Crawford

46'

N. Shaw← A. Doran

46'

L. Hyde← Z. Delaney

57'

B. McKay

61'

L. McGrattan← J. Quitongo

65'

D. Carson

67'

L. Hyde

75'

S. Boyd← J. Henderson

77'

80'

83'

84'

85'

86'

87'

Inverness

Morton

1

Schwake

6

Waters

23

Grimshaw

11

⚽

5

4

21

14

▼

Crawford

8

Blues

9

⚽

▼

Muirhead

10

▼

1

6

2

3

23

▼

Delaney

18

Allardice

17

▼

Mackay

20

▼

Henderson

8

Carson

10

▼

Doran

9

⚽

McKay

Manager: B. Dodds

46'▲N. Shaw←▼A. Doran

46'▲L. Hyde←▼Z. Delaney

75'▲S. Boyd←▼J. Henderson

84'▲E. Cairns←▼D. Mackay

Inverness CT substitutes

22Shaw16Hyde30Boyd32Cairns34Strachan21Mackay29Thompson

Manager: D. Imrie

61'▲L. McGrattan←▼J. Quitongo

77'▲A. King←▼R. Crawford

87'▲A. Roy←▼R. Muirhead

Morton substitutes

17McGrattan25King7Roy20Green18Garrity12Ambrose2Pignatiello