Inverness CT 3–0 Alloa Athletic: Result & Stats

Inverness CT

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alloa Athletic

Matheus Machado 88'

C. Trafford 64'

M. Curry 42'

10/12/2019

League #182 · 4th RoundTulloch Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Inverness CT82%

×Draw12%

Alloa Athletic6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inverness CTExpected goals in this matchAlloa Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

0.67

Inverness CT

2.92

Alloa Athletic

0.67

Inverness CT creates 336% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

3.83

creates per match

1.00

0.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Inverness CT

3.83

Alloa Athletic

1.00

allows per match

Inverness CT

0.33

Alloa Athletic

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

Alloa Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw

94%

Inverness CT or Alloa Athletic

88%

Draw or Alloa Athletic

18%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+

63%

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals

94%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

78%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

55%

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals

49%

Alloa Athletic 2+ goals

15%

Alloa Athletic 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

93%

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 3.83, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Alloa Athletic away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 3.83 + Alloa Athletic defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.92

Alloa Athletic attack 1.00 + Inverness CT defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Inverness CT scores more

82%

level

12%

Alloa Athletic scores more

6%

Inverness CT at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

64'

65'

75'

78'

J. Vincent← C. Trafford

85'

Matheus Machado← R. MacGregor

86'

C. O'Donnel← A. Brown

88'

Matheus Machado↳ M. Storey

Inverness

Alloa

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

A

⚽

▼

Curry

Manager: J. Robertson

75'▲J. White←▼M. Curry

78'▲J. Vincent←▼C. Trafford

85'▲Matheus Machado←▼R. MacGregor

Inverness CT substitutes

WhiteVincentMachadoMccartTremarcoRidgers

Manager: P. Grant

65'▲R. Thomson←▼K. OHara

86'▲C. O'Donnel←▼A. Brown

Alloa Athletic substitutes

ThomsonO'DonnelHenry