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Internacional vs RB Bragantino — Serie A 2026

Internacional
Internacional
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
RB Bragantino
RB Bragantino
11/26/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 35Estádio José Pinheiro Borda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Internacional56%
×Draw24%
RB Bragantino20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional
1.75
RB Bragantino
0.94

Internacional creates 86% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

Internacional
1.86
RB Bragantino
1.20

allows per match

Internacional
0.68
RB Bragantino
1.65

finishing

Internacional-0.54scores less
RB Bragantino-0.26scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional ↓

RB Bragantino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Internacional or draw
80%
Internacional or RB Bragantino
76%
Draw or RB Bragantino
44%

Winning margin

Internacional wins by 2+
32%
RB Bragantino wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Internacional 1+ goals
83%
Internacional 2+ goals
52%
Internacional 3+ goals
25%
RB Bragantino 1+ goals
61%
RB Bragantino 2+ goals
24%
RB Bragantino 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Internacional (draw refunded)
74%
RB Bragantino (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

RB Bragantino away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional attack 1.86 + RB Bragantino defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.75

RB Bragantino attack 1.20 + Internacional defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Internacional scores more
56%
level
24%
RB Bragantino scores more
20%

Internacional at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Internacional 1–0 RB Bragantino

Internacional beat RB Bragantino 1-0 in Serie A on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.