Internacional 0–0 Fluminense: Result & Stats

Internacional

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fluminense

11/8/2023

Serie A · Round 33Estádio José Pinheiro Borda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Internacional54%

×Draw27%

Fluminense19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InternacionalExpected goals in this matchFluminense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.74

Internacional

1.46

Fluminense

0.74

Internacional creates 97% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.86

creates per match

0.80

0.68

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Internacional

1.86

Fluminense

0.80

allows per match

Internacional

0.68

Fluminense

1.06

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Internacional-0.54scores less

Fluminense+0.03on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional ↓

Fluminense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Internacional or draw

81%

Internacional or Fluminense

73%

Draw or Fluminense

46%

Winning margin

Internacional wins by 2+

28%

Fluminense wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Internacional 1+ goals

77%

Internacional 2+ goals

43%

Internacional 3+ goals

18%

Fluminense 1+ goals

52%

Fluminense 2+ goals

17%

Fluminense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Internacional (draw refunded)

74%

Fluminense (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Fluminense away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional attack 1.86 + Fluminense defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.46

Fluminense attack 0.80 + Internacional defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Internacional scores more

54%

level

27%

Fluminense scores more

19%

Internacional at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff