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Internacional vs Botafogo — Serie A 2026

Internacional
Internacional
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Botafogo
Botafogo
12/7/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 38Estádio José Pinheiro Borda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Internacional58%
×Draw24%
Botafogo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional
1.69
Botafogo
0.82

Internacional creates 106% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

Internacional
1.86
Botafogo
0.97

allows per match

Internacional
0.68
Botafogo
1.52

finishing

Internacional-0.54scores less
Botafogo+0.44scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional ↓

Botafogo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Internacional or draw
82%
Internacional or Botafogo
76%
Draw or Botafogo
42%

Winning margin

Internacional wins by 2+
32%
Botafogo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Internacional 1+ goals
82%
Internacional 2+ goals
50%
Internacional 3+ goals
24%
Botafogo 1+ goals
56%
Botafogo 2+ goals
20%
Botafogo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Internacional (draw refunded)
76%
Botafogo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Botafogo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.52 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional attack 1.86 + Botafogo defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.69

Botafogo attack 0.97 + Internacional defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Internacional scores more
58%
level
24%
Botafogo scores more
18%

Internacional at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Internacional 3–1 Botafogo

Internacional beat Botafogo 3-1 in Serie A on December 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.