Internacional Podgorica 0–1 Otrant-Olympic

Internacional Podgorica

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Otrant-Olympic

3/2/2024

Second League · Round 20Stadion Trešnjica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Internacional Podgorica28%

×Draw26%

Otrant-Olympic46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional PodgoricaExpected goals in this matchOtrant-Olympic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.46

Internacional Podgorica

1.09

Otrant-Olympic

1.46

Otrant-Olympic creates 34% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 68 away

1.00

creates per match

1.19

1.72

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Internacional Podgorica

1.00

Otrant-Olympic

1.19

allows per match

Internacional Podgorica

1.72

Otrant-Olympic

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional Podgorica+0.00on par

Otrant-Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional Podgorica ↓

Otrant-Olympic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Internacional Podgorica or draw

54%

Internacional Podgorica or Otrant-Olympic

74%

Draw or Otrant-Olympic

72%

Winning margin

Internacional Podgorica wins by 2+

11%

Otrant-Olympic wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Internacional Podgorica 1+ goals

66%

Internacional Podgorica 2+ goals

30%

Internacional Podgorica 3+ goals

10%

Otrant-Olympic 1+ goals

77%

Otrant-Olympic 2+ goals

43%

Otrant-Olympic 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Internacional Podgorica (draw refunded)

38%

Otrant-Olympic (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional Podgorica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 36 matches

Otrant-Olympic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional Podgorica attack 1.00 + Otrant-Olympic defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Otrant-Olympic attack 1.19 + Internacional Podgorica defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Internacional Podgorica scores more

28%

level

26%

Otrant-Olympic scores more

46%

Otrant-Olympic at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Otrant-Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff