Internacional de Bogota 0–0 Fortaleza FC

Internacional de Bogota

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fortaleza FC

4/18/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 17Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Internacional de Bogota41%

×Draw28%

Fortaleza FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchFortaleza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.02

Internacional de Bogota

1.24

Fortaleza FC

1.02

Internacional de Bogota creates 22% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

1.17

creates per match

1.11

0.94

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.17

Fortaleza FC

1.11

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

0.94

Fortaleza FC

1.31

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.33scores more

Fortaleza FC+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Fortaleza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

70%

Internacional de Bogota or Fortaleza FC

72%

Draw or Fortaleza FC

59%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

18%

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

71%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

35%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

13%

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

64%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

27%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

58%

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.94 · 10 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.17 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Fortaleza FC attack 1.11 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

41%

level

28%

Fortaleza FC scores more

30%

Internacional de Bogota at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Rojas

Internacional de Bogota · F

7.7

Match Events

12'

Kevin Viveros

28'

Kevin ViverosPenalty cancelled

44'

Ronaldo Pajaro

44'

Ronaldo PajaroCard upgrade

46'

D. Camacho← Kevin Andrés Salazar

46'

S. Navarro← N. Rodríguez

52'

Yesid Díaz

56'

J. Lloreda← D. Castillo

69'

R. Murillo← J. Arrieta

77'

H. Palacios← I. Anderson

84'

J. Moreno← F. Viáfara

85'

J. Ceballos← J. Mahecha

90+3'

Daniel Polanco

90+1'

C. Hinestroza← Juan Camilo Castillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalFortaleza

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots9

6Corners5

14Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots9

4On Target2

9Off Target4

3Blocked3

11Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

330Total Passes389

245Accurate Passes304

74%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC

Internacional de Bogota and Fortaleza FC drew 0-0 in Primera A on April 18, 2024.

Fortaleza FC controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..

Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC