Internacional de Bogota 4–0 Chico: Result & Stats

Internacional de Bogota

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Chico

9/18/2020

Primera A · Round 9Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Internacional de Bogota56%

×Draw23%

Chico21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchChico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.02

Internacional de Bogota

1.81

Chico

1.02

Internacional de Bogota creates 77% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.17

creates per match

1.11

0.94

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.17

Chico

1.11

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

0.94

Chico

2.46

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

-0.91scores less than expected

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.33scores more

Chico-0.91scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Chico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

79%

Internacional de Bogota or Chico

77%

Draw or Chico

44%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

32%

Chico wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

84%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

54%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

27%

Chico 1+ goals

64%

Chico 2+ goals

27%

Chico 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

72%

Chico (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.94 · 10 matches

Chico away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.17 + Chico defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.81

Chico attack 1.11 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

56%

level

23%

Chico scores more

21%

Internacional de Bogota at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff