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Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
Preview
01:00
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
10/17/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 13Estadio Metropolitano de Techo
Big match
38%
Internacional de Bogota
model favours
38%29%33%

Atletico Nacional score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Internacional de Bogota38%
×Draw29%
Atletico Nacional33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Bogota
1.13
Atletico Nacional
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.17
Atletico Nacional
1.14

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota
0.94
Atletico Nacional
1.08

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.33scores more
Atletico Nacional+0.16scores more

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw
67%
Internacional de Bogota or Atletico Nacional
71%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
62%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
15%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
68%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
31%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
11%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
65%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
28%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
53%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.94 · 10 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.08 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.17 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Atletico Nacional attack 1.14 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more
38%
level
29%
Atletico Nacional scores more
33%

Internacional de Bogota at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Internacional de Bogota win just 27% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)
  • Atletico Nacional outscore their xG (2.1 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Internacional de Bogota
Balanced
Atletico Nacional
Possession-dominant
46%Possession56%
76%Pass accuracy83%
12.4Shots15.3
0.97xGBiggest gap1.55
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Internacional de BogotaAtletico Nacional

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Internacional de Bogota
2
Draws
6
Atletico Nacional
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 40%
1–71–20–31–30–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bogota
LLLWL
Nacional
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Internacional de Bogota host Atletico Nacional

October 17, 2026: Internacional de Bogota take on Atletico Nacional in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Internacional de Bogota host Atletico Nacional at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.