Internacional de Bogota 1–0 Atletico Nacional

Internacional de Bogota

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Nacional

5/14/2022

Primera A · Apertura - 20Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Internacional de Bogota38%

×Draw29%

Atletico Nacional33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.04

Internacional de Bogota

1.13

Atletico Nacional

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.17

creates per match

1.14

0.94

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.17

Atletico Nacional

1.14

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

0.94

Atletico Nacional

1.08

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.33scores more

Atletico Nacional+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

67%

Internacional de Bogota or Atletico Nacional

71%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

62%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

15%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

68%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

31%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

11%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

65%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

28%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

53%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.94 · 10 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.08 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.17 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Atletico Nacional attack 1.14 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

38%

level

29%

Atletico Nacional scores more

33%

Internacional de Bogota at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff