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Interclube vs Santa Rita — Girabola 2019

Interclube
Interclube
FT
3 – 1
Santa Rita
Santa Rita
2/1/2020GirabolaGirabola · Round 18Estádio Joaquim Dinis (Luanda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Interclube57%
×Draw27%
Santa Rita16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Interclube
1.41
Santa Rita
0.60

Interclube creates 135% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 68 away

creates per match

Interclube
1.49
Santa Rita
0.50

allows per match

Interclube
0.71
Santa Rita
1.32

finishing

Interclube+0.00on par
Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Interclube ↓

Santa Rita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Interclube or draw
84%
Interclube or Santa Rita
73%
Draw or Santa Rita
43%

Winning margin

Interclube wins by 2+
29%
Santa Rita wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Interclube 1+ goals
76%
Interclube 2+ goals
41%
Interclube 3+ goals
17%
Santa Rita 1+ goals
45%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
12%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Interclube (draw refunded)
78%
Santa Rita (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Interclube at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.32 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Interclube attack 1.49 + Santa Rita defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Santa Rita attack 0.50 + Interclube defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Interclube scores more
57%
level
27%
Santa Rita scores more
16%

Interclube at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Interclube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Interclube 3–1 Santa Rita

Interclube beat Santa Rita 3-1 in Girabola on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Dinis (Luanda).