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Inter vs Sassuolo — Serie A 2026

Inter
Inter
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
B. Valero 86'
C. Biraghi 45+1'
R. Lukaku 41' (pen)
G. Magnani 89'
D. Berardi 81' (pen)
F. Caputo 4'
6/24/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 27Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Inter58%
×Draw22%
Sassuolo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.89
Sassuolo
1.00

Inter creates 89% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

creates per match

Inter
2.12
Sassuolo
1.23

allows per match

Inter
0.78
Sassuolo
1.66

finishing

Inter+0.04on par
Sassuolo+0.01on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Sassuolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Inter or draw
80%
Inter or Sassuolo
78%
Draw or Sassuolo
42%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
34%
Sassuolo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
85%
Inter 2+ goals
56%
Inter 3+ goals
29%
Sassuolo 1+ goals
63%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
26%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
75%
Sassuolo (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.78 · 31 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.66 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.12 + Sassuolo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.89

Sassuolo attack 1.23 + Inter defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Inter scores more
58%
level
22%
Sassuolo scores more
20%

Inter at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Romelu LukakuInterInter · F
7.7

Match Events

4'
F. Caputo↳ F. Djuricic
23'
Rogerio
25'
M. Skriniar
41'
R. LukakuPenalty
44'
A. Bastoni
45+1'
C. Biraghi↳ A. Sanchez
46'
Rogerio← G. Kyriakopoulos
54'
A. Ranocchia← S. de Vrij
58'
F. Magnanelli← M. Locatelli
58'
F. Caputo← G. Defrel
61'
Conte A.
62'
A. Sanchez← L. Martinez
62'
C. Eriksen← L. Agoume
67'
J. Boga← L. Haraslin
75'
V. Moses← A. Candreva
75'
C. Biraghi← A. Young
79'
V. Chiriches← G. Magnani
81'
D. BerardiPenalty
86'
B. Valero↳ A. Candreva
89'
G. Magnani
90+3'
M. Skriniar
90+3'
M. Skriniar

Possession

47%Inter

Shots

17Inter

Pass accuracy

49%Inter

Statistics

InterSassuolo
Overview
47%Possession53%
17Total Shots12
7Corners6
18Fouls20
Shots
17Total Shots12
9On Target4
5Off Target5
3Blocked3
13Inside Box7
4Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
395Total Passes458
345Accurate Passes411
87%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
18Fouls20
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Inter vs Sassuolo

Inter and Sassuolo drew 3-3 in Serie A on June 24, 2020.

Goals: F. Caputo (4'), R. Lukaku (41' pen), C. Biraghi (45+1'), D. Berardi (81' pen), B. Valero (86'), G. Magnani (89').

Sassuolo controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.