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Inter vs Lazio — Serie A 2026

Inter
Inter
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lazio
Lazio
L. Martínez 64'
R. Lukaku 45', 22' (pen)
S. Milinković-Savić 61'
2/14/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 22Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Inter56%
×Draw24%
Lazio20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.73
Lazio
0.94

Inter creates 84% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 28 away

creates per match

Inter
2.15
Lazio
1.09

allows per match

Inter
0.78
Lazio
1.31

finishing

Inter+0.04on par
Lazio-0.05on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Inter or draw
80%
Inter or Lazio
76%
Draw or Lazio
44%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
31%
Lazio wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
82%
Inter 2+ goals
52%
Inter 3+ goals
25%
Lazio 1+ goals
61%
Lazio 2+ goals
24%
Lazio 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
73%
Lazio (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.78 · 32 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.31 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.15 + Lazio defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.73

Lazio attack 1.09 + Inter defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Inter scores more
56%
level
24%
Lazio scores more
20%

Inter at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
R. LukakuInterInter · F
8.9

Match Events

20'
Wesley Hoedt
22'
R. LukakuPenalty
26'
Romelu Lukaku
45'
Romelu LukakuPenalty confirmed
45'
R. Lukaku
46'
G. Escalante← Lucas Leiva
46'
M. Parolo← W. Hoedt
59'
Achraf Hakimi
61'
S. Milinković-Savić
64'
L. Martínez↳ R. Lukaku
70'
F. Caicedo← J. Correa
70'
V. Muriqi← C. Immobile
72'
R. Gagliardini← C. Eriksen
78'
A. Sánchez← L. Martínez
78'
Andreas Pereira← Luis Alberto
90+1'
M. Darmian← I. Perišić
90+1'
D. D'Ambrosio← A. Hakimi
90+1'
A. Pinamonti← R. Lukaku

Possession

35%Inter

Shots

12Inter

Pass accuracy

46%Inter

Statistics

InterLazio
Overview
35%Possession65%
12Total Shots14
4Corners0
7Fouls4
Shots
12Total Shots14
7On Target6
1Off Target5
4Blocked3
8Inside Box6
4Outside Box8
Passing
35%Possession65%
382Total Passes692
286Accurate Passes602
75%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls4
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Serie A: Inter 3–1 Lazio

Inter beat Lazio 3-1 in Serie A on February 14, 2021.

Goals: R. Lukaku (22' pen, 45'), S. Milinković-Savić (61'), L. Martínez (64').

Lazio controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.