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Inter vs Lazio — Serie A 2026

Inter
Inter
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lazio
Lazio
Danilo D'Ambrosio 23'
9/25/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 5Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Inter56%
×Draw24%
Lazio20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.73
Lazio
0.94

Inter creates 84% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 28 away

creates per match

Inter
2.15
Lazio
1.09

allows per match

Inter
0.78
Lazio
1.31

finishing

Inter+0.04on par
Lazio-0.05on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Inter or draw
80%
Inter or Lazio
76%
Draw or Lazio
44%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
31%
Lazio wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
82%
Inter 2+ goals
52%
Inter 3+ goals
25%
Lazio 1+ goals
61%
Lazio 2+ goals
24%
Lazio 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
73%
Lazio (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.78 · 32 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.31 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.15 + Lazio defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.73

Lazio attack 1.09 + Inter defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Inter scores more
56%
level
24%
Lazio scores more
20%

Inter at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Samir HandanovičInterInter · G
8.0

Match Events

23'
Danilo D'Ambrosio↳ Cristiano Biraghi
31'
Luis Alberto
45'
Danilo D'Ambrosio
53'
Ciro Immobile← Felipe Caicedo
57'
Stefano Sensi← Matías Vecino
66'
Lucas Leiva← Luis Alberto
73'
Bastos
73'
Valon Berisha← Sergej Milinković-Savić
77'
Lautaro Martínez← Matteo Politano
81'
Marco Parolo
83'
Alexis Sánchez← Romelu Lukaku
90'
Lautaro Martínez

Possession

64%Inter

Shots

15Inter

Pass accuracy

52%Inter

Statistics

InterLazio
Overview
64%Possession36%
15Total Shots10
4Corners6
10Fouls8
Shots
15Total Shots10
3On Target4
7Off Target2
5Blocked4
11Inside Box9
4Outside Box1
Passing
64%Possession36%
676Total Passes370
590Accurate Passes297
87%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls8
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Serie A: Inter 1–0 Lazio

Inter beat Lazio 1-0 in Serie A on September 25, 2019.

Goals: Danilo D'Ambrosio (23').

Inter controlled possession (64%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.