Inter 1–2 Juventus: Result & Stats | Serie A

Inter

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Juventus

10/6/2019

Serie A · Round 7Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Inter48%

×Draw25%

Juventus27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InterExpected goals in this matchJuventus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.11

Inter

1.59

Juventus

1.11

Inter creates 43% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

2.17

creates per match

1.47

0.75

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Inter

2.17

Juventus

1.47

allows per match

Inter

0.75

Juventus

1.01

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Inter+0.04on par

Juventus-0.09on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Juventus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Inter or draw

73%

Inter or Juventus

75%

Draw or Juventus

52%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+

25%

Juventus wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals

80%

Inter 2+ goals

47%

Inter 3+ goals

21%

Juventus 1+ goals

67%

Juventus 2+ goals

30%

Juventus 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)

65%

Juventus (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.75 · 34 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.17 + Juventus defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.59

Juventus attack 1.47 + Inter defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Inter scores more

48%

level

25%

Juventus scores more

27%

Inter at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff