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Inter vs Genoa — Serie A 2018

Inter
Inter
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Genoa
Genoa
2/28/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 24Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Inter59%
×Draw23%
Genoa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.83
Genoa
0.91

Inter creates 101% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

creates per match

Inter
2.18
Genoa
1.04

allows per match

Inter
0.78
Genoa
1.47

finishing

Inter+0.30scores more
Genoa-0.11scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Inter or draw
82%
Inter or Genoa
77%
Draw or Genoa
41%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
34%
Genoa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
84%
Inter 2+ goals
54%
Inter 3+ goals
28%
Genoa 1+ goals
60%
Genoa 2+ goals
23%
Genoa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
76%
Genoa (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.78 · 25 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.18 + Genoa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.83

Genoa attack 1.04 + Inter defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Inter scores more
59%
level
23%
Genoa scores more
18%

Inter at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Inter 3 – 0 Genoa

Inter beat Genoa 3-0 in Serie A on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.