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Inter vs Fiorentina — Serie A 2026

Inter
Inter
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
G. Bonaventura 53'
4/1/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 28Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Inter57%
×Draw23%
Fiorentina20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.81
Fiorentina
0.95

Inter creates 91% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 26 away

creates per match

Inter
2.12
Fiorentina
1.11

allows per match

Inter
0.78
Fiorentina
1.49

finishing

Inter+0.04on par
Fiorentina+0.04on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Fiorentina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Inter or draw
80%
Inter or Fiorentina
77%
Draw or Fiorentina
43%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
33%
Fiorentina wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
84%
Inter 2+ goals
54%
Inter 3+ goals
27%
Fiorentina 1+ goals
61%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
25%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
75%
Fiorentina (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.78 · 31 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.49 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.12 + Fiorentina defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.81

Fiorentina attack 1.11 + Inter defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Inter scores more
57%
level
23%
Fiorentina scores more
20%

Inter at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
C. BiraghiFiorentinaFiorentina · D
8.2

Match Events

46'
N. Milenković← L. Martínez
53'
G. Bonaventura
58'
Gaetano Castrovilli
63'
S. de Vrij← A. Bastoni
63'
Lautaro Martínez← J. Correa
63'
R. Bellanova← R. Gosens
66'
R. Sottil← R. Saponara
66'
S. Amrabat← G. Castrovilli
76'
Jonathan Ikoné
76'
A. Barák← R. Mandragora
76'
L. Ranieri← J. Ikoné
77'
Marcelo Brozović
78'
K. Asllani← H. Mkhitaryan
78'
E. Džeko← M. Brozović
79'
Sofyan Amrabat
90+4'
Francesco Acerbi

Possession

59%Inter

Shots

16Inter

Pass accuracy

52%Inter

Statistics

InterFiorentina
Overview
59%Possession41%
16Total Shots19
2.75Expected Goals (xG)1.11
10Corners8
8Fouls7
Shots
16Total Shots19
3On Target3
7Off Target9
6Blocked7
13Inside Box11
3Outside Box8
Passing
59%Possession41%
465Total Passes335
385Accurate Passes254
83%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls7
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Inter vs Fiorentina

Fiorentina beat Inter 1-0 in Serie A on April 1, 2023.

Goals: G. Bonaventura (53').

Inter controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 19.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.