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Inter vs Cagliari — Serie A 2026

Inter
Inter
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cagliari
Cagliari
Lautaro Martínez 29'
Radja Nainggolan 78'
1/26/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 21Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Inter62%
×Draw22%
Cagliari16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.93
Cagliari
0.86

Inter creates 124% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Inter
2.18
Cagliari
0.95

allows per match

Inter
0.78
Cagliari
1.67

finishing

Inter+0.30scores more
Cagliari-0.03on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Cagliari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Inter or draw
84%
Inter or Cagliari
78%
Draw or Cagliari
38%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
37%
Cagliari wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
85%
Inter 2+ goals
57%
Inter 3+ goals
30%
Cagliari 1+ goals
58%
Cagliari 2+ goals
21%
Cagliari 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
79%
Cagliari (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.78 · 25 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.18 + Cagliari defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.93

Cagliari attack 0.95 + Inter defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Inter scores more
62%
level
22%
Cagliari scores more
16%

Inter at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
Radja NainggolanCagliariCagliari · M
8.3

Match Events

17'
Diego Godín← Milan Škriniar
29'
Lautaro Martínez↳ Ashley Young
45'
Romelu Lukaku
61'
Nicolò Barella
74'
Lucas Castro← Christian Oliva
76'
Federico Mattiello← Luca Pellegrini
78'
Radja Nainggolan↳ João Pedro
82'
Alexis Sánchez← Stefano Sensi
83'
Stefan de Vrij
85'
Federico Dimarco← Cristiano Biraghi
86'
Luca Cigarini← Radja Nainggolan
90'
Lautaro Martínez
90'
Tommaso Berni
90'
Lautaro Martínez

Possession

40%Inter

Shots

18Inter

Pass accuracy

50%Inter

Statistics

InterCagliari
Overview
40%Possession60%
18Total Shots13
4Corners6
10Fouls10
Shots
18Total Shots13
5On Target2
9Off Target7
4Blocked4
13Inside Box6
5Outside Box7
Passing
40%Possession60%
383Total Passes565
320Accurate Passes477
84%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls10
4Yellow Cards0
2Red Cards0
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Inter vs Cagliari

Inter and Cagliari drew 1-1 in Serie A on January 26, 2020.

Goals: Lautaro Martínez (29'), Radja Nainggolan (78').

Cagliari controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.