Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Inter vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Inter
Inter
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
AS Roma
AS Roma
F. Dimarco 30'
C. Smalling 75'
P. Dybala 39'
10/1/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 8Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Inter53%
×Draw23%
AS Roma23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.77
AS Roma
1.09

Inter creates 62% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

creates per match

Inter
2.18
AS Roma
1.40

allows per match

Inter
0.78
AS Roma
1.35

finishing

Inter+0.30scores more
AS Roma-0.08on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Inter or draw
77%
Inter or AS Roma
77%
Draw or AS Roma
47%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
30%
AS Roma wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
83%
Inter 2+ goals
53%
Inter 3+ goals
26%
AS Roma 1+ goals
66%
AS Roma 2+ goals
30%
AS Roma 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
69%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.78 · 25 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.35 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.18 + AS Roma defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.77

AS Roma attack 1.40 + Inter defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Inter scores more
53%
level
23%
AS Roma scores more
23%

Inter at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
H. ÇalhanoğluInterInter · M
7.5

Match Events

12'
Edin DžekoGoal cancelled
30'
F. Dimarco↳ N. Barella
39'
P. Dybala↳ L. Spinazzola
54'
Nicolò Zaniolo
58'
T. Abraham← P. Dybala
61'
Gianluca Mancini
65'
Chris Smalling
73'
Kristjan Asllani
75'
C. Smalling↳ L. Pellegrini
77'
H. Mkhitaryan← K. Asllani
77'
J. Correa← H. Çalhanoğlu
81'
R. Bellanova← D. Dumfries
81'
R. Gosens← A. Bastoni
81'
M. Camara← L. Pellegrini
86'
A. Belotti← N. Zaniolo
87'
Joaquín Correa
88'
V. Carboni← F. Dimarco
90+2'
Nicolò Barella
90'
Robin Gosens

Possession

58%Inter

Shots

15Inter

Pass accuracy

51%Inter

Statistics

InterAS
Overview
58%Possession42%
15Total Shots10
5Corners1
15Fouls14
Shots
15Total Shots10
2On Target3
8Off Target6
5Blocked1
6Inside Box6
9Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
540Total Passes403
465Accurate Passes338
86%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls14
4Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Inter 1 – 2 AS Roma

AS Roma beat Inter 2-1 in Serie A on October 1, 2022.

Goals: F. Dimarco (30'), P. Dybala (39'), C. Smalling (75').

Inter controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.