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Inter vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Inter
Inter
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
L. Martínez 52'
M. Brozović 40'
D. Dumfries 30'
H. Mkhitaryan 85'
4/23/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 34Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Inter52%
×Draw24%
AS Roma24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.74
AS Roma
1.09

Inter creates 60% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 22 away

creates per match

Inter
2.12
AS Roma
1.40

allows per match

Inter
0.78
AS Roma
1.35

finishing

Inter+0.04on par
AS Roma-0.08on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Inter or draw
76%
Inter or AS Roma
76%
Draw or AS Roma
48%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
29%
AS Roma wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
82%
Inter 2+ goals
52%
Inter 3+ goals
25%
AS Roma 1+ goals
66%
AS Roma 2+ goals
30%
AS Roma 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
69%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.78 · 31 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.35 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.12 + AS Roma defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.74

AS Roma attack 1.40 + Inter defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inter scores more
52%
level
24%
AS Roma scores more
24%

Inter at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
H. ÇalhanoğluInterInter · M
8.3

Match Events

30'
D. Dumfries↳ H. Çalhanoğlu
36'
Gianluca Mancini
40'
M. Brozović↳ I. Perišić
45+1'
Marcelo Brozović
52'
L. Martínez↳ H. Çalhanoğlu
63'
J. Correa← E. Džeko
64'
A. Bastoni← F. Dimarco
64'
Carles Pérez← S. El Shaarawy
64'
J. Veretout← L. Pellegrini
72'
R. Gosens← I. Perišić
72'
R. Gagliardini← M. Brozović
78'
M. Viña← N. Zalewski
78'
E. Shomurodov← T. Abraham
79'
Sérgio Oliveira
80'
E. Bove← Sérgio Oliveira
82'
A. Sánchez← L. Martínez
85'
H. Mkhitaryan↳ E. Shomurodov
87'
Hakan Çalhanoğlu

Possession

45%Inter

Shots

11Inter

Pass accuracy

49%Inter

Statistics

InterAS
Overview
45%Possession55%
11Total Shots9
4Corners3
11Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots9
8On Target2
2Off Target3
1Blocked4
8Inside Box6
3Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
437Total Passes557
367Accurate Passes483
84%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Serie A: Inter 3–1 AS Roma

Inter beat AS Roma 3-1 in Serie A on April 23, 2022.

Goals: D. Dumfries (30'), M. Brozović (40'), L. Martínez (52'), H. Mkhitaryan (85').

AS Roma controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.