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Inter vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Inter
Inter
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
12/6/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 15Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Inter54%
×Draw24%
AS Roma22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.75
AS Roma
1.04

Inter creates 68% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 26 away

creates per match

Inter
2.17
AS Roma
1.32

allows per match

Inter
0.75
AS Roma
1.34

finishing

Inter+0.04on par
AS Roma-0.09on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Inter or draw
78%
Inter or AS Roma
76%
Draw or AS Roma
46%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
30%
AS Roma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
83%
Inter 2+ goals
52%
Inter 3+ goals
25%
AS Roma 1+ goals
65%
AS Roma 2+ goals
28%
AS Roma 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
71%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.75 · 34 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.17 + AS Roma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.75

AS Roma attack 1.32 + Inter defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Inter scores more
54%
level
24%
AS Roma scores more
22%

Inter at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter vs AS Roma

Inter and AS Roma drew 0-0 in Serie A on December 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.