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Inter vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Inter
Inter
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AS Roma
AS Roma
I. Perišić 61'
S. El Shaarawy 14'
4/20/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 33San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Inter53%
×Draw24%
AS Roma23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.73
AS Roma
1.05

Inter creates 65% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 27 away

creates per match

Inter
2.13
AS Roma
1.34

allows per match

Inter
0.76
AS Roma
1.33

finishing

Inter+0.03on par
AS Roma-0.08on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Inter or draw
77%
Inter or AS Roma
76%
Draw or AS Roma
47%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
29%
AS Roma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
82%
Inter 2+ goals
52%
Inter 3+ goals
25%
AS Roma 1+ goals
65%
AS Roma 2+ goals
28%
AS Roma 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
70%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.76 · 37 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.13 + AS Roma defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.73

AS Roma attack 1.34 + Inter defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Inter scores more
53%
level
24%
AS Roma scores more
23%

Inter at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44
I. PerišićInterInter · M
7.9

Match Events

14'
S. El Shaarawy↳ E. Džeko
46'
N. Zaniolo← C. Ünder
54'
M. Icardi← R. Nainggolan
61'
I. Perišić↳ D. D'Ambrosio
62'
Matías Vecino
76'
Bryan Cristante
79'
João Mário← Lautaro Martínez
81'
J. Kluivert← Lorenzo Pellegrini
84'
Nicolò Zaniolo
84'
K. Baldé← M. Politano

Possession

72%Inter

Shots

21Inter

Pass accuracy

55%Inter

Statistics

InterAS
Overview
72%Possession28%
21Total Shots9
7Corners4
7Fouls13
Shots
21Total Shots9
5On Target5
8Off Target4
8Blocked0
13Inside Box6
8Outside Box3
Passing
72%Possession28%
681Total Passes268
608Accurate Passes192
89%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Inter vs AS Roma

Inter and AS Roma drew 1-1 in Serie A on April 20, 2019.

Goals: S. El Shaarawy (14'), I. Perišić (61').

Inter controlled possession (72%) and registered 21 shots to 9.

The match was played at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza in Milan.