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Inter vs AC Milan — Serie A 2018

Inter
Inter
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AC Milan
AC Milan
2/5/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 21Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Inter49%
×Draw24%
AC Milan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.68
AC Milan
1.18

Inter creates 42% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Inter
2.18
AC Milan
1.57

allows per match

Inter
0.78
AC Milan
1.17

finishing

Inter+0.30scores more
AC Milan-0.13scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Inter or draw
73%
Inter or AC Milan
76%
Draw or AC Milan
51%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
26%
AC Milan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
81%
Inter 2+ goals
50%
Inter 3+ goals
24%
AC Milan 1+ goals
69%
AC Milan 2+ goals
33%
AC Milan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
65%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.78 · 25 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.18 + AC Milan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.68

AC Milan attack 1.57 + Inter defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Inter scores more
49%
level
24%
AC Milan scores more
27%

Inter at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter vs AC Milan

Inter beat AC Milan 1-0 in Serie A on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.