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Inter vs AC Milan — Serie A 2026

Inter
Inter
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
AC Milan
AC Milan
R. Lukaku 29'
Z. Ibrahimović 16', 13'
10/17/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 4Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Inter50%
×Draw24%
AC Milan26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.67
AC Milan
1.14

Inter creates 46% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Inter
2.11
AC Milan
1.50

allows per match

Inter
0.77
AC Milan
1.23

finishing

Inter+0.04on par
AC Milan-0.11scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Inter or draw
74%
Inter or AC Milan
76%
Draw or AC Milan
50%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
26%
AC Milan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
81%
Inter 2+ goals
50%
Inter 3+ goals
23%
AC Milan 1+ goals
68%
AC Milan 2+ goals
32%
AC Milan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
66%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.77 · 33 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.11 + AC Milan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.67

AC Milan attack 1.50 + Inter defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Inter scores more
50%
level
24%
AC Milan scores more
26%

Inter at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Z. IbrahimovićAC MilanAC Milan · F
8.9

Match Events

13'
Z. Ibrahimović
16'
Z. Ibrahimović↳ Rafael Leão
22'
Simon Kjær
29'
R. Lukaku
45'
Franck Kessié
60'
Zlatan Ibrahimović
62'
R. Krunić← Rafael Leão
63'
Samu Castillejo← A. Saelemaekers
64'
Marcelo Brozović
67'
C. Eriksen← M. Brozović
69'
Arturo Vidal
75'
Romelu LukakuGoal cancelled
83'
Achraf Hakimi
84'
A. Sánchez← A. Vidal
87'
S. Tonali← F. Kessié

Possession

55%Inter

Shots

18Inter

Pass accuracy

52%Inter

Statistics

InterAC
Overview
55%Possession45%
18Total Shots11
3Corners5
18Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots11
6On Target4
6Off Target6
6Blocked1
15Inside Box8
3Outside Box3
Passing
55%Possession45%
446Total Passes363
365Accurate Passes277
82%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls11
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Inter vs AC Milan

AC Milan beat Inter 2-1 in Serie A on October 17, 2020.

Goals: Z. Ibrahimović (13', 16'), R. Lukaku (29').

Inter controlled possession (55%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.